Hot Stock Trends

Still hold bullish view for SPY for the next week

2011-10-02T15:01:00.000-07:00

A nail was hammered firmly in the base, SPY will have a bullish run next week.

Market in the next week

2011-09-25T07:59:00.000-07:00

SPY will rebound from here in large probability.

First level to watch is 115.57 and then 116.87. Most likely the rebounce will stop at 116.87 level and then will have a small dive from this point. For now, it is wise to close all short position.

With these projected rebounce, three stocks are good for a swing trade: Coach (COH), Delta (DAL), and Micron (MU).

A swing opportunity

2011-09-25T07:43:00.000-07:00

In this bear market, looks like a few stocks have at least a short bullish run. Coach is one of them. Buy and hold for a few days may have a good gain.

S&P 500: Short Term Bullish Trend Terminated

2010-03-20T07:02:00.000-07:00

SPY was so bullish in the first eight sessions in the last two weeks. I warned to look out for a top two weeks ago. Now, the caution is gone. SPY had a successful break out. There is no major resistance above the current price level. However, in short term, the performance in the last two sessions announced the termination of the last bullish run. Most likely, SPY will pull back a little. I've put two horizontal green lines here. If SPY pulls back above or in the zone of these two lines and then goes up, there will be a long rally for SPY again. If SPY pulls back below the green line around 112, be cautious of a fake break out! Happy trading!

S&P 500: be cautious for a top

2010-03-07T15:11:00.000-08:00

As predicted in my last blog, S&P 500 had a nice bullish run last week. Let's re-examine the current market in the following figure:
After the bullish run, the market became over-bought. Three short term bearish signs are emerging: 1. RSI is approaching a short term max. 2. The price is almost over it's 2 SD range. 3. The price is very close to the reversed head-shoulder rebound level: 115. This does not mean an immediate trend reversal and short, but this does mean to be cautious and if necessary take profit. What I can say at this point is: SET STOP now! The chance of a pullback next week is increasing. The level of pullback should be closely watched. If it's too big, a possible double head pattern can form. In case this pattern forms, it will be a very bearish sign in combination of the divergent MACD I mentioned in the last blog.

S&P 500: Technical Analysis

2010-02-28T09:27:00.000-08:00

The stock market ended flat on Friday. It seems the market is losing a direction. Many stock investors are confused about the market move. Indeed it's very difficult to find a direction in this quite neutral set-up: 1. The RSI is neutral. 2. The current price is around the monthly moving average. However, if we look more closely, we can see that the market has an attempt to move higher in a short term. The double bottom of the RSI and the reversed head-shoulder pattern favor a bottomed correction. The only unconfirmed signal is the unbroken neckline. In addition to those bullish signs, there is a longer term bearish concern: the reversed MACD. This is a very powerful indicator for longer term trend reversal. If the neckline cannot be broken and then the market turns south, it won't be a correction any more, it'll be a beginning of a bearish market for a least a couple of months.

Apple Still a Good Call

2010-02-27T19:32:00.002-08:00

Analysts' Recommendation

My Performance This Year

2010-02-27T09:48:00.001-08:00

Is Yahoo! a strong buy?

2010-02-21T10:29:00.000-08:00

Standard & Poor's issued a strong buy for Yahoo! (Ticker: YHOO) recently. They believe Yahoo's revenue will increase 7% in 2010 and 2011 respectively and they also see the joint venture between Yahoo! and Miscrosoft is a good sign. Is YHOO a strong buy?

Fundamentally, analysts expect Yahoo! to make good earnings in the next couple of years. Here is the earnings estimates:

If the current economy is recovered healthily, Yahoo!'s earnings trend looks promising!

Technically, Yahoo! is in a mid-term downtrend. However, in short term, there is a well formed bottom as indicated by the green arrow in the following figure (Weekly chart of YHOO). The bottom is confirmed by the last week's rally. In short term, it's extremely important to observe whether the blue downtrend resistant line will be broken through. If it's broken, it's a sign of a mid-term trend reversal and also exhibits a possible long term rally!

On the other hand, the contraction of short interests also indicates a bullish trend for Yahoo!, as seen in the following figure.

In summary, the fundamental and technical factors indicate that Yahoo! is on a right track for a bullish run!

Chicken stocks that will be affected by China's tariffs

2010-02-08T06:14:00.000-08:00

There is an ongoing chicken war between China and the US now. Those two stocks will be affected. But who is the Chicken Little? :)

Pilgrim's Pride (PPC): duty-fee 80.5%
Tyson Foods (TSN): duty-fee 43.1%

Top 10 hot Tech stocks for 2010 by Kiplinger

2010-02-07T09:02:00.000-08:00

1. Applied Materials (AMAT)
2. Autodesk (ADSK)
3. Cisco Systems (CSCO)
4. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
5. Microchip Technology (MCHP)
6. Micron Technology (MU)
7. Nice Systems (NICE)
8. Nvidia (NVDA)
9. Vistaprint (VPRT)
10. Yahoo (YHOO)

市场已经筑好了底

2008-12-07T17:08:00.000-08:00

从图上的divergency来看，市场的下降趋势已经终止。上扬趋势可期！

SPY Short Interest

2008-11-07T16:26:00.000-08:00

S&P 500: 美国股市下跌已终止

2008-10-29T16:41:00.001-07:00

今天美联储又一次降息，利息跌到了五十年的最低。如果美国的经济在近期没有质的改变，再降一次利息可以预期。那么，股市如何处理这些信息呢？

附图为追踪S&P 500表现的基金SPDRs的日K线图，它的ticker为SPY。
从图上可以清晰的看到，自九月中后旬发动的下降趋势到目前为止看似未得到实质性的改善。红线所指大约可代表这种下降的趋势。今天，趁着降息的热潮，SPY象征性地冲破了这根趋势线。这是否意味着下降趋势的终结呢？
让我们来看看。
首先，请注意绿圈所指的交易日，这是一个经典的反转图形，具有以下几个特征：暴跌后出现，低开，长脚，长上影线，短空心身子，巨量。第二天的巨幅上涨确定了反转。实际上，这两天就已经决定了下降趋势的终结。后面的剧烈起起伏伏只不过是市场在底部的整理。尤其值得注意的是绿色箭头所指的三次伴随巨量的低位上涨，这些都是大钱入市的迹象。而绿色水平直线所确定的则是一个结实的底。
今天象征性的突破下降趋势线没有实质的意义。但可以肯定的是：市场的下降将不再会那么具有破坏性，而底部的整理在短期内将继续进行：空头慢慢离场，多头慢慢入场，好戏需要时间的酝酿。当SPY回撤到85左右的时候，短期长期的建仓都可缓慢进行。如果美国的经济出现进一步恶化，那么绿色水平线位置83.5就成为多头止损的一个好的标记。

LDK: Short Interest

2007-12-29T15:56:00.001-08:00

auy

2007-11-25T15:35:00.001-08:00

uso

2007-11-25T08:07:00.000-08:00

gld

2007-11-25T08:06:00.001-08:00

qqqq

2007-11-25T08:04:00.000-08:00

Figures for 11/24

2007-11-25T07:57:00.001-08:00

PTR: a good bull trap

2007-11-17T03:48:00.001-08:00

GLD: does history repeat?

2007-11-17T03:08:00.000-08:00

MSFT: long term chart

2007-11-17T02:52:00.001-08:00

ISRG: A textbook chart maker

2007-11-17T02:28:00.000-08:00

MSFT

2007-11-15T18:12:00.001-08:00

Nasdaq: Daily

2007-11-14T16:42:00.000-08:00

Nasdaq weekly

2007-11-14T16:40:00.000-08:00

Dow

2007-11-10T07:56:00.001-08:00

qqqq

2007-11-10T07:07:00.001-08:00

Dow: Over sold

2007-11-08T19:24:00.000-08:00

Dow

2007-11-07T16:54:00.001-08:00

SPY: 11-07

2007-11-07T16:38:00.000-08:00

SPY: Daily Chart

2007-11-06T19:32:00.000-08:00

Dow: long term

2007-11-05T16:34:00.000-08:00

Please click the graph to view the enlarged size.
This is a weekly chart for Dow. It's very clear Dow is still in the up trend channel. It is currently pulled back at the 38.2% level. Two weeks ago, it tested the 50% pull back level. It's very important to monitor the point of wave 2. The southest it can go is where the red arrow points at if Dow still wants to be bullish. This point has three major importances: 1. 61.8% pull back, 2. strong resistance, 3. up trend line. If this point is penetrated, then a bear market will be coming sooner or later. Otherwise, it will be another one to two years of bull market!

TA: DRYS and EXM

2007-10-03T16:50:00.000-07:00

Click the figures to view bigger charts.
As the shipping sector is in a very nice up trend, the strategy here is to protect profits instead of finding an entry point or resistance level. I will only show 15 minutes chart in a 20 day range for DRYS and EXM. The first one is DRYS. This stock has a good up trend for several days and today it breaks down the up trend line. To be protective, the gap as indicated by the green area around $92 should be considered as a stop price.

This is a similar chart for EXM. EXM is having a harder time than DRYS. The up trend line is broken today too. There is also a gap above the current price level, which forms a strong resistance for this stock. Tomorrow, the region between the two horizontal green lines around $58 should be closely watched to see if it can provide some support.

CMI: Pull Back at a Support Level

2007-09-30T10:05:00.000-07:00

After price break out(red circle), CMI is pulling back at a horizontal support level. If this level can provide a good support, this stock will have a longer running up.

USO: Long Term Technical Analysis

2007-09-29T18:07:00.000-07:00

This is a weekly chart of USO in two years. It's very clear USO has formed a solid inverted head-shoulder bottom. If we connected the neck line, we can see that in the red circle the neck line provided a strong support for the short term pull back. Since then, USO has made a good rally.

Based on the bottom and the neck line, we can obtain an approximate target line and we can also see that the target was reached in the last week. Just because of this reason, USO was very volatile in the last week(see the candle in the yellow circle). The investors were indecisive about wheter taking profit or making new highs.

Also a resistance line is hovering around $65. In short term, it is a challenge for USO. However, in a long term, USO is heading for a price break out.

ICE: Will have a huge run!

2007-09-28T14:10:00.000-07:00

On 09/25/2007, ICE was selected as one of the component stocks in the S&P 500 index. On this day, the volume reached nearly 20 million shares and the stock also had a huge jump. The jump brought ICE completely out of the short term down trend channel.

Let's review ICE's past performance first. After its debut, the stock kept running up for almost half a year, then it had a major correction along with the broader market correction in last June. Then ICE soared up for almost 8 months. Then there came a big correction again. A couple months ago, ICE made its all time high again. Since then, it was in a down trend.

From the chart, we can see there are three higher pivot highs and three higher pivot lows(the short red line is a low at close and it's not a pivot low, the long leg is an extreme value). In summary, what ICE did in the past two years was: a short run, a long and big run, and then a healthy consolidation.

Now, the real good news is the huge volume on 09/25/2007. It is almost the same amount as the debut volume. More importantly, it accounts for 1/3 of the total number of outstanding shares. Talking about accumulation, what else can be a larger accumulation than this one? Simply speaking, the supply of this stock will be in short, no matter the demand is up or down. Hopefully, this effect could be seen soon and for a long time.

SBUX: Update Here

2007-09-28T05:54:00.001-07:00

Click: New Update

RSH: Trend Further Down

2007-09-27T19:00:00.000-07:00

RSH is one of the unlucky members in this bull market. The sideways after a huge down trend didn't prevent the stock's further down. On Tuesday and today, short sellers controlled the market. As indicated in the red circle, the sideways is broken and a further down trend is confirmed by today's performance.

BSC: Shorters are panic

2007-09-26T16:12:00.000-07:00

Let's first take a look at the daily chart: The green box and blue box are the shorting period when August data and September data were obtained. The red histograms are the volumes INCREASED during this period. The two red lines are the high end of short price and average short price in September. Today's rally could be viewed as a covering by shorters or short squeezing. However, if we look at the minute-wise chart for today, it seems another group of shorters are gaining strength at a higher price level.

Minute Chart:

The big jump today occured around 118 which is close to the average short price in September. This price triggered a set of short covering stop orders, with some fake news, the demand is mainly from shorter side. Then another group of people jumped in and dumped the stock as we can see from the decreasing trend of the OBV at the end of today's session.

SBUX: Uptrend Pressure is still high

2007-09-24T19:05:00.000-07:00

Red boxes are the short interest volumes. SBUX is still under short pressure. Sideways may last for a while until some good news appear. September volume is still unavailable. Once it's available, the chart will be updated.

FIG: Short Squeeze should be watched

2007-09-23T19:12:00.001-07:00

The figure is revised and updated based on new data released on 9/24/07. We can see the short interest is diminishing and the recent up trend might have already been a short squeeze.

The red histogram is the cumulative short interest volumes. The biggest short volume increase is around the price level in the green box. Technically, there is also good signs for short squeeze: 1. the downtrend is broken. 2. above SMA 50. 3. News of dividend announcement. The squeeze price range should be around the green box, that is, $23-$24.5. If FIG moves above $22, it'll be a good bet to expect a short squeeze. At that time, the stop price can be set as the current price level, that is $20.7.

AA: Long Term TA

2007-09-23T08:30:00.001-07:00

This is a five year weekly chart for AA. In long term, AA is deciding to choose an up trend channel (green) or a down trend channel(red). From several points(green, red lines, and the SMA 20 week curve), we can see $39-$40 will form an important resistance for AA. In short term, this area is also a 50% pull back from the recent lowest low (as blue lines indicate). If AA cannot move above that area, it will pull back again and the next pivot low will determine whehter AA will be in an up trend channel or a down trend channel in a long run.

WFMI: Next couple weeks will be vital

2007-09-22T20:14:00.000-07:00

This is a weekly chart of WFMI. WFMI is still in the down trend channel. In the past two months, WFMI tested the EMA 50 week curve three times. To see a trend reversal, WFMI has to move above the EMA 50 week curve first, then there is a horizontal resistance and the resistance from the upper bound of the down trend channel.

If WFMI cannot reach over the upper bound of the down trend channel, the $36 level should be closely watched, if there is a price break down at this level, the down trend will continue. If support is found at this level, WFMI will turn sideways.

GOOG: price break out

2007-09-22T16:17:00.001-07:00

GOOG also made a price break out on Friday with a good volume. The base is a solid inverted head-shoulder pattern. The up trend of GOOG will continue although there may be a pull back in the near future. Need close watch for a rally.

CVX: Bullish

2007-09-22T14:02:00.000-07:00

On Friday, CVX made a record price break out along with a high volume. The chart shows a clear cup and handle formation. There were nine consecutive bullish trading days with good volume increase in the last week. CVX is technically bullish!