Friday, September 28, 2007

ICE: Will have a huge run!


On 09/25/2007, ICE was selected as one of the component stocks in the S&P 500 index. On this day, the volume reached nearly 20 million shares and the stock also had a huge jump. The jump brought ICE completely out of the short term down trend channel.

Let's review ICE's past performance first. After its debut, the stock kept running up for almost half a year, then it had a major correction along with the broader market correction in last June. Then ICE soared up for almost 8 months. Then there came a big correction again. A couple months ago, ICE made its all time high again. Since then, it was in a down trend.

From the chart, we can see there are three higher pivot highs and three higher pivot lows(the short red line is a low at close and it's not a pivot low, the long leg is an extreme value). In summary, what ICE did in the past two years was: a short run, a long and big run, and then a healthy consolidation.

Now, the real good news is the huge volume on 09/25/2007. It is almost the same amount as the debut volume. More importantly, it accounts for 1/3 of the total number of outstanding shares. Talking about accumulation, what else can be a larger accumulation than this one? Simply speaking, the supply of this stock will be in short, no matter the demand is up or down. Hopefully, this effect could be seen soon and for a long time.

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