Sunday, February 28, 2010

S&P 500: Technical Analysis

The stock market ended flat on Friday. It seems the market is losing a direction. Many stock investors are confused about the market move. Indeed it's very difficult to find a direction in this quite neutral set-up: 1. The RSI is neutral. 2. The current price is around the monthly moving average. However, if we look more closely, we can see that the market has an attempt to move higher in a short term. The double bottom of the RSI and the reversed head-shoulder pattern favor a bottomed correction. The only unconfirmed signal is the unbroken neckline. In addition to those bullish signs, there is a longer term bearish concern: the reversed MACD. This is a very powerful indicator for longer term trend reversal. If the neckline cannot be broken and then the market turns south, it won't be a correction any more, it'll be a beginning of a bearish market for a least a couple of months.

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