S&P 500: be cautious for a top

As predicted in my last blog, S&P 500 had a nice bullish run last week. Let's re-examine the current market in the following figure:
After the bullish run, the market became over-bought. Three short term bearish signs are emerging: 1. RSI is approaching a short term max. 2. The price is almost over it's 2 SD range. 3. The price is very close to the reversed head-shoulder rebound level: 115. This does not mean an immediate trend reversal and short, but this does mean to be cautious and if necessary take profit. What I can say at this point is: SET STOP now! The chance of a pullback next week is increasing. The level of pullback should be closely watched. If it's too big, a possible double head pattern can form. In case this pattern forms, it will be a very bearish sign in combination of the divergent MACD I mentioned in the last blog.

S&P 500: Technical Analysis

The stock market ended flat on Friday. It seems the market is losing a direction. Many stock investors are confused about the market move. Indeed it's very difficult to find a direction in this quite neutral set-up: 1. The RSI is neutral. 2. The current price is around the monthly moving average. However, if we look more closely, we can see that the market has an attempt to move higher in a short term. The double bottom of the RSI and the reversed head-shoulder pattern favor a bottomed correction. The only unconfirmed signal is the unbroken neckline. In addition to those bullish signs, there is a longer term bearish concern: the reversed MACD. This is a very powerful indicator for longer term trend reversal. If the neckline cannot be broken and then the market turns south, it won't be a correction any more, it'll be a beginning of a bearish market for a least a couple of months.

SPY Short Interest

S&P 500: 美国股市下跌已终止

今天美联储又一次降息，利息跌到了五十年的最低。如果美国的经济在近期没有质的改变，再降一次利息可以预期。那么，股市如何处理这些信息呢？

附图为追踪S&P 500表现的基金SPDRs的日K线图，它的ticker为SPY。
从图上可以清晰的看到，自九月中后旬发动的下降趋势到目前为止看似未得到实质性的改善。红线所指大约可代表这种下降的趋势。今天，趁着降息的热潮，SPY象征性地冲破了这根趋势线。这是否意味着下降趋势的终结呢？
让我们来看看。
首先，请注意绿圈所指的交易日，这是一个经典的反转图形，具有以下几个特征：暴跌后出现，低开，长脚，长上影线，短空心身子，巨量。第二天的巨幅上涨确定了反转。实际上，这两天就已经决定了下降趋势的终结。后面的剧烈起起伏伏只不过是市场在底部的整理。尤其值得注意的是绿色箭头所指的三次伴随巨量的低位上涨，这些都是大钱入市的迹象。而绿色水平直线所确定的则是一个结实的底。
今天象征性的突破下降趋势线没有实质的意义。但可以肯定的是：市场的下降将不再会那么具有破坏性，而底部的整理在短期内将继续进行：空头慢慢离场，多头慢慢入场，好戏需要时间的酝酿。当SPY回撤到85左右的时候，短期长期的建仓都可缓慢进行。如果美国的经济出现进一步恶化，那么绿色水平线位置83.5就成为多头止损的一个好的标记。

SPY: Daily Chart